2013年新型城镇化行业主题研究报告（100页）

　　2013年新型城镇化行业主题研究报告：

　　新型城镇化——受益产业链及股票推荐 ......................................................................................................................6

　　看好城市人口定居型需求和流动人口市民化需求带来的投资机会 .......................................................................6

　　受益股票概览 .............................................................................................................................. .........................7

　　我们认为，新型城镇化不再是“量”的积累，而更注重“质”的提升 .......................................................................8

　　过去三十年，中国式城镇化快速完成了“量”的积累 ..........................................................................................8

　　未来十年，新型城镇化将更加注重“质”的提升 .................................................................................................9

　　“品质引领生活”——城市建设精细化、城市生活智能化 .......................................................................................10

　　集约高效、绿色低碳促进城市建设精细化 ..........................................................................................................10

　　舒适便捷最终要求城市生活智能化..................................................................................................................... 11

　　“政策改变生活”——流动人口市民化、公共服务均等化 .......................................................................................12

　　流动人口“市民化”，流动型消费转为定居型消费 .............................................................................................12

　　公共服务均等化，教育、医疗受益显著 .............................................................................................................13

　　“进城创造生活”——潜在转移人口进城后的新增基本需求....................................................................................14

　　未来仍有 1.2 亿潜在农业转移人口进城 ..............................................................................................................14

　　新增城镇人口带来新需求 .............................................................................................................................. .....15

　　交通基础设施 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................16

　　存量提升——一线城市轨道交通建设加密 ..........................................................................................................16

　　增量推动——二、三线城市轨道交通建设扩张 ..................................................................................................16

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................16

　　建筑工程 ....................................................................................................................................................................18

　　城市品质升级——装饰园林需求高增长 .............................................................................................................18

　　增量转移——城市综合体建设兴起，医院建设进入高潮 ....................................................................................18

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................19

　　节能环保 ....................................................................................................................................................................20

　　必需之路，逆势成长 .............................................................................................................................. ............20

　　品质提升 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................20

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................21

　　智慧城市 ....................................................................................................................................................................22

　　智慧城市建设力度加大 .............................................................................................................................. .........22

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................23

　　智能交通 ....................................................................................................................................................................24

　　中期向管理者服务，缓解拥堵、保障交通安全 ..................................................................................................24

　　逐步向出行者服务转型，提高城市生活品质 ......................................................................................................24

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................24

　　安防 .............................................................................................................................. .............................................27

　　安防产业市场潜力巨大 .............................................................................................................................. .........27

　　“高清化智能化”与“安防运营”是行业持续成长逻辑 ..............................................................................................27

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................27

　　医疗与健康 .............................................................................................................................. ..................................30

　　医药卫生服务品质提升 .............................................................................................................................. .........30

　　城镇化转移创造增量需求 .............................................................................................................................. .....30

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................31

　　文化传媒 ....................................................................................................................................................................32

　　公共文化服务均等化，从政策层面提升基础文化支出 ........................................................................................32

　　流动人口市民化，内生性扩大文化娱乐消费 ......................................................................................................32

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................33

　　房地产 .............................................................................................................................. .........................................34

　　城镇化减速提质，城市建设精细化，婚房需求、拆迁改造、居住条件改善将是潜在需求的主流 ......................34

　　城镇新增人口带来的住宅需求则相对有限 ..........................................................................................................34

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................34

　　餐饮业 .............................................................................................................................. .........................................37

　　餐饮消费是新城镇化进程中的最先受益的消费板块 ...........................................................................................37

　　投资建议 .............................................................................................................................. ..............................37