高盛:2013年中国连锁百货行业研究报告（英文 44页）

　　The authors would like to thank Ardla Wang for her contribution to the report.

　　The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of Jan 18

　　Executive summary: position for 2013 growth recovery but be selective  Cyclical headwinds turning, structural challenges priced in  Top picks: Intime (adding to CL), Golden Eagle, Lifestyle (upgrade from neutral)  The attack of shopping mall? Structural challenge largely priced in  China department store industry under 5 competitive forces  Cyclical turning more positive in 2013 as macro stabilizing  Too many shopping space? Still below long term potential  The attack of the mall? Department store ha To lease or not to lease? A structural ri Ownership of store assets differs across operators  Retail rent is on the rise  What if rent increase by 50%?  What are the options?  The two dimension of growth: SSSG and new store ramping up  1. Best SSSG: Intime and Golden Eagle  2. Who had the best track record in opening new stores? Intime again  Intime (1833.HK, CL Buy): Sector leading growth to drive outperformance  Golden Eagle (3308.HK, Buy): sustained growth and return leadership  Lifestyle (1212.HK, Buy): high quality assets, sustainable return, upgrade to Buy  Parkson (3368.HK, Neutral): weak outlook priced in  Maoye (848,HK, Neutral): sector lagging growth and return, downgrade to Neutral  NWDS (825.HK, Neutral): lowest return in sector, fairly priced  Disclosure Appendix